Article Type : Review Article
Authors : Bista RB, Gyawali RP, Dahal KR and Dahal RK
Keywords : Vulnerability; Climate change vulnerability; Disaster; Altitude; Adaptive capacity
This study was conducted during the period of
January 2014 to December 2015. Its main objective was to investigate the status
of climate change vulnerability in the water basin and its catchment areas. Its
method was the survey of relevant literatures. Climate change is emerging issue
induced vulnerability at the household level of developing countries more
critical than of developed countries because of lower adaptive capacity of
household. Its distribution is horizontal across the different income groups
but its magnitude is vertically different across the different income groups.
Its magnitude is less in the high-income group but higher in the low-income
group. Therefore, the low-income group is more vulnerable from climate change
than the high-income group in developing countries, like in Nepal. In addition,
climate change induced disasters have negative correlation with altitudes in
Nepal.
So
far, concerning climate change vulnerability, the recent studies conceptualize
it new form of vulnerability. Considers it as the unmanageable adverse impacts
of climate change. In the scientific assessment reports, explain it as the
degree to which a system is vulnerable to or unable to manage with the adverse
impacts of climate change including climate variability and extremes. Further,
argues it as some extent of damage to climate change depending on a system’s
sensitivity and on their capacities to adapt to new climatic conditions [2].
Specifically, have similar conclusion as a function of the character,
magnitude, and rate of climate change and of system’s exposure, sensitivity and
adaptive capacity. It is followed by with similar observation on the features
of the vulnerable system, their types, stressors, main reasons and effects on
the system, and the time period of the assessment. Horizontal and vertical
effects of vulnerability occur when climate change emerges [3]. Concerning the
effects of vulnerability, explain vulnerability of social systems into
different variables such as the threat, the region, the sector, the population
group, the consequence and time. Similar observation is found in the study of
Metzger specifies the vulnerability of ecosystems to global change with respect
to a particular ecosystem service, a location, a scenario of stressors, and a
time slice [4]. Furthermore, argues climate change vulnerability having
technological and economic challenges to societies. In order to minimize its
negative implication at farm level, adaptation method is effective. Proclaimed
that future livelihoods might be in the risk of the change in global climate
variables such as change in temperature and precipitation [5]. These variables
are considered significant estimators in the agrarian societies in
south-western Cameroon regions where agriculture is main source of livelihood.
However, differently, in his socio-economic development studies finds the
connection of vulnerability of individual and community with climate
variability as socio-economic vulnerability [6,7]. He argues that it is the key
aspect in the structure of vulnerability. In the structure, the aspects of
individual and collective vulnerability are different. At the individual level,
this type of vulnerability embraces relative poverty and deprivation as well as
unrecognized social security. Similarly, at the collective level, it
encompasses infrastructure, the role of the state and policy intervention. Both
the levels of vulnerability reflect on vulnerability to climate change with the
changing incidence of extreme events. Studies of WHO in health sector find such
vulnerability of climate change as severe risk of defensible public health [8].
Further, there is expected a rise in climate-related diseases, such as heat
strokes and the growing events of vector borne diseases, such as malaria during
tremendously rainy and arid years. In addition, studies have worried and
alerted about the consequences of growing drought on food and ?ber production.
Still, its effect is mysterious in depth.
Climate Change Vulnerability has different factors. IPCC Third
Assessment Report and found vulnerability as an element of the character,
extent, and rate of climate variation to which a framework is uncovered, its
affectability, and its versatile limit. In this IPCC theoretical literature,
three components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity are mentioned as
follows:
· Exposure is the immediate risk (i.e. the stressor),
and the nature and extent of changes of a province’s climate variables (e.g.,
temperature, precipitation, extraordinary weather events).
· Sensitivity is the human–environmental
conditions that can intensify the threat, enhance the risk, or activate an
effect.
· Adaptive capacity refers the capacity of
household to cope
Structurally,
advocate two sides of vulnerability to environmental hazard: internal and
external sides which are used to distinguish the external stressors that a
system is exposed from the internal factors that determine their impacts on
that system [10-14]. External is used for socio-economic factor. In this
regard, considers its similar two sides. The external side of risks relates to
Individual to climate change and internal side is defencelessness i.e. a
shortage of resources to handle without destructive damage. Differently, Moss,
identify three dimensions of vulnerability to climate change:
physical-environmental, socio economic and external assistance. The
physical-environmental dimension mentions to the climatic conditions in area
and to the biophysical effects of climate change, such as changes in
agricultural output or the distribution of malady vectors [15]. The
socioeconomic dimension refers to area’s capability to recuperate from risky
occasions and adjust to alter over the longer term. The third dimension,
external assistance, is defined as the level to which area may be assisted in
its attempts to adjust to alter through its partners and transaction
associates, diaspora communities in other regions, and international
arrangements to provide aid. In contrast to United Nations, this
conceptualization of vulnerability includes factors outside the vulnerable
system, such as characteristics of the stressor and the expected level of
external assistance [16]. Furthermore, differently, in the study of
vulnerability factors, United Nations distinguished the four groups of
vulnerability factors: physical factors, economic factors, non-economic factors
(social factors) and environmental factors. Physical factors describe the
exposure to vulnerable elements within a region. Economic factors, which
describe the economic resources of individuals, populations groups, and
communities; social factors, which describe non-economic factors that determine
the well-being of individuals, population groups, and communities, such as the
level of education, security, access to basic human rights, and good
governance; and environmental factors, which describe the state of the
environment within a region. All of these factors describe properties of the
vulnerable system or community rather than of the external stressors. Just
mentioned four dimensions like as United Nations, but differently to explain a
vulnerable situation in his conceptual framework of vulnerability: a) System
refers to a coupled human–environment system, a population group, an economic
sector, a geographical region, or a natural system. b) Attribute of concern:
The valued attribute of the vulnerable system that is threatened by its exposure
to a hazard. c) Hazard: it is a potentially damaging influence on the system of
analysis. United Nations defines hazard largely as a possibly destructive
physical event, phenomenon or human movement leading towards the loss of life
or wound, assets loss, social and economic disturbance or environmental ruin.
Hence, a hazard is understood as some influence that may adversely affect a
valued attribute of a system. A hazard is generally but not always external to
the system under consideration. For instance, a community may also be
threatened by hazardous business activity or by unsustainable land management
practices within this community. Hazard are often distinguished from discrete
hazard, denoted as perturbations, and continuous hazard, denoted as stress or
stressor. Developed his climate change vulnerability assessment framework based
on the features of the defenceless structure, the category and quantity of
stressors and their root reasons, their impacts on the structure, and the time
period of the valuation to assess climate-related vulnerability [17,18]. In the
framework, he included four fundamental dimensions related variables
specifically (i) the system is mentioned in the framework of region and/or
population group and/or sector of concern. In simple, it may be applicable to
natural systems. Downing and simplified to three dimensions into single one as
natural systems. (ii) The hazard is the external stressor (or set of stressors)
such as climate change, flooding etc. United Nations as a potentially critical
physical event, phenomenon or human action causing the damage of life or wound,
assets loss, social and economic disturbance or environmental deprivation
broadly explains hazard. Hence, a hazard is understood as some external
influence that may adversely affect a valued attribute of a system. (iii) The
consequences are physical valuable matters, biological life and biological life
related assets. Its examples are human lives and health, the existence, income
and cultural identity of a community, the biodiversity, and forest ecosystems
and (iv) a temporal reference provides reference to assess climate related
vulnerability and its extremity and also comparative study. If the
vulnerability of a system or its exposure to the hazard is expected to change
significantly into the time period considered in an assessment, statements
about vulnerability should specify a temporal reference, i.e. the period that
they refer to. This is particularly relevant to vulnerability assessments
addressing anthropogenic climate change, which may have a time horizon of
several decades or longer.
Climate change vulnerability is the result of climate change. Its
distribution is all over the world where adaptation capacity of each country
determines its magnitude. In developed countries, its magnitude is lower
meanwhile its magnitude level is higher in developing countries.
Climate change vulnerability at global level
Climate change vulnerability is a big issue at Global level. On this
issue, there are many empirical literatures, out of which this study has
surveyed to most relevant empirical literatures for understanding its
distribution and magnitude. Climate change is a driver of vulnerability. Found
rain falls variability as shock behind growing vulnerability i.e., the
likelihood of charming deprived of the future and further the household have a
39 per cent chance to be deprived of the future [19]. This is the result of
their study on the relationship between rainfall variability in arid areas and
vulnerability at the rural household in Kenya by using pseudo panel data.
Similarly, found highly delicate to those people below 2USD earning poverty
line and the poor remains poor because of climate overindulgence in their study
on the farmer’s vulnerability to climate extremes in Ethiopia by using
econometric approach to identifying vulnerable farmers and probability of their
loss of income. The magnitude of climate change vulnerability is due to lower
adaptive capacity. The positive relationship between higher magnitude of
climate change vulnerability and lower adaptive capacity in their study to
construct a picture of socioeconomic context of vulnerability by focusing on
indicators that measure both the state of development of the region and its
capacity to progress further through vulnerability index based on primary data
sets. The absolute poor household has lower adaptive capacity. Therefore, they
are more vulnerable. Similarly, have found similar results in their analysis of
vulnerability to climate change at household level in South Africa in 2010 by
using the frequency of past and predicted changes in rainfall and temperature
by 2050 [22]. Its distribution to the largest exposure to climate change is not
almost the most vulnerable condition because the vulnerability is intertwined
with social and economic development. In this regards, found the most
vulnerable countries are those arranged in sub-Saharan Africa and those that
has as of late experienced clash. Versatile limit—one component of
vulnerability—is related overwhelmingly to administration, common and political
rights, and proficiency in their determinants of vulnerability and adaptive
capacity at the national level and the suggestions for adjustment in sub-Saharan
Africa by creating calculated structure with an arrangement of markers of
vulnerability and ability to adjust to atmosphere changeability, and by
augmentation climate change. Identified climate change induced landslide
disaster affecting adversely effects more on the lower socio economic household
than the higher socio economic household in the study the extent and nature of
the increasing adverse effects of landslide on housing in Murree City by
dividing three clusters: inner city, urban fringe and rural fringe.
Furthermore, he found that the weak and poor communities are more vulnerable to
the landslide effects on housing than rich, educated and powerful houses.
Adaptive capacity of Household and Institutions to floods in Chiang Mai,
Thailand based on primary data collected by field survey by using theoretical
method. The study found at the institutional level issues of jurisdiction and
confusion between local authorities and development planning. At some extent,
the local authorities worked on the flood mitigation plans, particularly on
structural measures. The study argued its negative externality such as
worsening floods of downstream areas. The early warning system in Chiang Mai
Province was well-developed to the flood. In addition, the flood risk map was
very effective. The study found autonomous and individual adaptation behaviour
in nature at household levels in which the rural household had adaptive
behavior more than the urban household did. Such difference depended on
frequency of flood. In rural areas, frequency of flood per annum was more than
in urban areas. The study argued to need of increasing public awareness and
knowledge about flood preparedness. The climate change vulnerability of
household in 12 Municipalities in the province of Laguna, Philippines by using
a quantitative approach such as the Vulnerability Index (VI) and Vulnerability
as Expected Poverty (VEP). The study found about 29 percent (VI) and 36 percent
(VEP) of the household at least moderately and highly vulnerable respectively.
The high incidence of vulnerability occurred in the case of the employee of the
commercial and services sector and the livelihood dependent on agriculture. In
addition, female-headed household had also higher vulnerability. Two results
showed VEP and VI vulnerability categorization matched for only about 53
percent of the observations. In Laguna, typhoons and floods were the most
significant natural hazard in terms of frequency and proportion of household
affected. These hazards damaged to houses, psychological and emotional
distress, and loss of income. There were occurrence of autonomous adaptation
adopted by majority household such as strengthening the structure of their
houses, moving belongings to higher ground, and temporarily evacuating. Household
had preferred top five interventions such as financial assistance, provision of
relief goods, information dissemination, medical assistance, construction of
flood mitigation infrastructure, and livelihood assistance. The result would be
a good basis for economic analysis for identifying adaptation options. The
distribution of climate change vulnerability in the world is much more on
agriculture sector [26]. Impact on agriculture in the study to measure climate
vulnerability and economic globalization by using data base of different
indicators such as exposure to import trade, adaptive capacity, such as soil
quality, water availability, foreign employment, infrastructure, human capital
and physical capital with a Climate Sensitivity Indicator (CSI) (dryness and
monsoon). Higher agriculture cost due to climate change in his study evaluating
impacts on harvest yields with general harmony model to consider the effects of
product yield changes in costs, free market activity, and on whatever remains
of the economy [27]. At the farm level of agriculture sector, found climate
change vulnerability having technological and economic challenges to societies
in his study on climate variability, vulnerability and effectiveness of
farm-level adaptation options: the challenges and implications for food
security in South-western Cameroon. He focused the need of adaptation and its
effectiveness for minimizing its negative implication at farm level. Similarly,
found climate change vulnerability on maize crop production in his study on
Measuring Vulnerability to Climate Change has empirically examined how climate
variability affects household in developing countries by employing
disaggregated and adjusted to computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on
Malawi.. Simultaneously, its large land holding rural household may be in fact
beneficial due to the increased maize prices. However, urban poor and
small-scale farmers are vulnerable to climate change because of their food
intensives. Estimated 6 per cent downfalls of farm level net revenues with the
marginal effect of enlarged temperature in his study whether it is the impact
of mean climate changes or climate variability that is assessed, whether farms
are irrigated and geographic locations and in which season climate variability
occurs. He used Ricardian Method based on cross-sectional farm level data onto
eleven African countries. Further, on dry land farms, its effect on net revenue
is estimated at -8 percent. On the irrigated land farms, its effect on net
revenue is positive and estimated 3 percent growths of warming. The impact of
declined precipitation also shows large variations, although both irrigated and
rain-fed farming is expected to lose.
Assessed the impacts of climate variability on Malawi, specifically
economy wide impacts of droughts and floods on Malawi as well as adaptation
through adoption of drought resistant maize variety. The study employed the CGE
model at farm household level based on the simulation of production losses in
agriculture estimated in a stochastic drought and flood model. The study
estimates average loss with 1.7 per cent of GDP annually due to droughts and
floods with Malawi. The CGE model divided farm household based on land holding
size and region, as well as urban and rural non-farm household. Land size was
used to categorize Farmland meanwhile skill level was used to categorized labor
[29]. Found drought affected significantly agriculture and food production by
reducing crop yields and then food production in the country in their study on the
relationship between climate change and food security in Zimbabwe based on the
assumption that climate change is a severe risk on food security in developing
countries, like in Africa. Further, they observed a shift in the country’s
agro-ecological regions and its attribution to climate change. In this context,
found negative effect of climate change on crops as dropping yields of
plantain, cocoyam, maize and cocoa and deteriorating livelihood and expanded
poverty, hunger and deterioration of living standards in their study on the
impact of climate change on crop production and development of Muyuka
subdivision [30]. During increasing sunshine, the drought climatic event caused
drying of plants and ripening of cocoa pods before maturity.The negative productivity
of the two main crops, corn and soy in US to multi-decade changes in exposure
to extreme heat in the study of the potential impacts on economic outcomes and
adaptation to climate change in US agriculture by using global climate models
using data of temperature and precipitation changes across US counties.
Further, they projected substantial losses under future climate change in the
absence of efforts to help farmers better adapt to extreme heat [31].
Climate change vulnerability at national
Climate change vulnerability is emerging a big
issue at local level too. On this issue, there are few empirical literatures.
Few most relevant empirical literatures are surveyed for understanding its
distribution and magnitude in agriculture. In Nepal, climate change
vulnerability lies more in hills and high hills. Examined impact of climate
change on agriculture in Nepal by using time series data by using econometric
model. The study found temperature rising with 2.00 C averages in the western
Nepal. It is relatively 3 times higher than lower temperature within the
country and significantly higher in the comparison of global trend of
temperature variation. Over the last 36 years (1975-2010) in western Nepal,
rising average temperature is 1.2°C that is twice more of the global average.
He indicated more vulnerability to climate change in hills and high hills. Like
as in the world, its vulnerability is higher in agriculture in Nepal. Found
more vulnerable the agriculture system from the flood in the study on flood hazard,
their impacts, and the resilience of communities at the watershed level of
Kankai River in Nepal [32,33]. Further, they found that the hazard prone area
would increase from 25 year-returns period flood to 50 year-returns period
flood. More than 10 sq. km. of the agriculture land was in high hazard zone.
The flood hazard was due to change in precipitation pattern and human
intervention. Changes in climate and monsoon pattern made these areas more
vulnerable. Special attention to the concerned body of this disaster should be
drawn for the mitigation and to minimize loss from damage. Found heavy costs of
climate change higher than the benefits of the farmers in the study on the
potential economic impacts of the climate change on smallholder farming communities
in Nepal by using theoretical and empirical papers published in different
Journals [34,35]. In direct cost, there was higher cost of decreasing crops and
livestock and increasing cost of production, along with cost from the increased
risks of natural hazard and indirect cost as cost of change in socio-economic
conditions, lost opportunities for the improvement in living conditions and
adaptation costs. In the benefit, there were shortening crop life cycle,
increasing to growing seasons and carbon fertilization increasing the crop
production. The impacts of climate change on food security in the country in
the context of policies of commercialization of farm production of his paper on
Climate change and Food Security in Nepal based on literature review and
analysis of secondary data. Time series secondary data onto agriculture,
rainfall and temperature collected from publications of the Ministry of
Agriculture and Cooperatives (MOAC) and Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
(DHM). Similarly, food production data was collected from MOAC. In the method
of analysis, statistical and econometric techniques were applied. The results
were discoursed empirically and qualitatively on global, national, household
and individual levels. The climate change affected the food security adversely
at all four levels—global, national, household and individual. It was realized
that among the climate estimators, the rise in minimum temperature reduces the
yield of rainy season crops affecting the national self-sufficiency of food
grains. The climate change affected the entire food system from production,
processing, distribution, consumption and utilization. Food security in Nepal
was particularly vulnerable to climate change due to low level of human control
over the water and the temperature and fragile ecosystems that got easily
affected from the climate change and related extreme weather events. The study
noted a rise in minimum temperature pulls down the productivity of rice and
push up risk of food insecurity. In this context, it pointed out the need of
policy measures for improving food security and some areas for further
research. Adaptation measures can reduce climate change vulnerability cost in
Nepal. Policy measures for reducing the costs of the climate change the farmers
bear in the study on the potential economic impacts of the climate change on
smallholder farming communities in Nepal by using theoretical and empirical
papers published in different Journals. He argued the importance of
interventions such as variety, drought tolerant livestock, irrigation
infrastructure and suitable farming technology to the farmers. In addition, it
emphasized on the creation of the off farm employment opportunities as less
affected by climate change than the agricultural source of income. It mentioned
the need of farming system researches for the identification of location and
endowment specific management trade-off suitable for the poor farmers. It gave
the importance of national and international policy measures for the compensating
the farmers for the costs due to the climate change, the need of public sector
investment in agricultural production to safeguards the farmers from the
vagaries of the climate change and the need of agricultural research program to
develop technologies necessary for climate change adaptation. At end, the study
opened up new research areas of quantification of the costs and benefits of the
climate change in relation to the farmers and also to the food security of the
nation. The study found the poor suffered from the floods more than the rich.
Its evidence was flood damage costs accounted for 54.2 percent of the household
income of the poor, but only 9.7 percent of the rich household in the urban
area. Tested community level education’s effect on the vulnerability to floods
and landslide in Nepal by using the secondary data on losses at the village
level due to flood and landslide published by the government of Nepal and micro
data at the individual level from the 2001 census. In addition, primary information
was collected from in depth interviews for various stakeholders in the study
areas. Regression analysis method was employed to analyse such issue. The study
found statistically significant explanatory variable to the mean years of
schooling of young people aged 15-39 explaining losses caused by floods and
landslide in all parts of Nepal. Rising mean years of schooling had higher
effectiveness in the Terai than in the rest of the Nepal to reduce the numbers
of lives lost and numbers of families affected. Its effectiveness level was
almost 50 percent to reduce vulnerability higher in the Terai than in the rest
of Nepal. A one year increased in educational attainment pulled down 59 percent
in the Terai and 37 percent in Hill and Mountain Regions. The study argued that
the effect of education falling vulnerability was more prevalent than
income/wealth in floods and landslide in the study area [36,37].
Climate change vulnerability is more in the developing countries than in
the developed countries. Its distribution is horizontal across the different
income groups but its magnitude is vertically different across the different
income groups. Its magnitude is less in the high-income group but higher in the
low-income group. Therefore, the low-income group is more vulnerable from
climate change than the high-income group in developing countries, like in
Nepal. In addition, climate change induced disasters have negative correlation
with altitudes in Nepal. Its intensity is higher in agriculture where the
farmers have higher cost of climate change vulnerability than revenue from
agricultural production.
We would like to acknowledge to University Grant Commission (UGC),
Sanothimi, Dean Office, Faculty of Social Science and Humanities, Central
Department of Economics and Department of Economics, Tribhuvan University for
their valuable support. In addition, we would like to acknowledge to Associate
Professor Dr. Ranjan Kumar Dahal, Dr. Manita Timilisana, Dr. Ganga Lal
Tuladhar, Deepak K.C., UNDP, Dr. Shreedhar Thapa, Associate Professor Tara
Bhusal, and Assistant Dean Dr. Rajkumar Pokharel, Mr. Keshab Poudel, Mr. Budhi
Prasad, Sundar Nepal and Prof. Joyshree Roy for their contribution during the
preparation of this paper.